Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Archive for the ‘science’ Category

That reductionism is limited, however, does not mean it is not powerful, amazingly productive, and tremendously useful scientifically. We simply need to understand its place, and recognise that we live in a very different universe from that painted by reductionism alone.

So writes Stuart Kauffman in “Reinventing the Sacred” (ISBN 978-0-465-00300-6). I agree with that. As a medical doctor who practices in a field of medicine which values an understanding of patients from a holistic perspective, seeking to know, not just the diseases they might have, but to know the individuals who have those diseases, I find reductionist approaches both useful and insufficient. As Mary Midgley says in “Wisdom, Information and Wonder”,

One cannot claim to know somebody merely because one has collected a pile of printed information about them.

The key point Kauffman seeks to make in his book (he is a complexity scientist) is how our relatively new exploration of complex systems in non-reductionist ways has revealed characteristics which fundamentally change the way we understand reality. The central characteristic is, he feels, “emergence”.

…while life, agency, value, and doing presumably have physical explanations in any specific organism, the evolutionary emergence of these cannot be derived from or reduced to physics alone. Thus, life, agency, value and doing are real in the universe. This stance is called emergence……….Emergence is therefore a major part of the new scientific worldview. Emergence says that, while no laws of physics are violated, life in the biosphere, the evolution of the biosphere, the fullness of our human historicity, and our practical everyday worlds are also real, not reducible to physics nor explicable from it, and are central to our lives. Emergence, already both contentious and transformative, is but one part of the new scientific worldview I shall discuss.

The other major characteristic he describes is how Nature does not conform to “natural laws”, and so the world is not nearly as predictable nor controllable as we have believed (well you only need to read about this year’s economic crises to see that’s true, don’t you!)

Kauffman explains how emergence is a quality of unceasing creativity, and he explains how unpredictability challenges the supremacy of reason as a guide to life. When you first encounter them, these are radical ideas for a scientist, but the more you learn about complexity as a way of understanding reality, the more you realise how reductionism does not equal science. Science is a greater way of thinking than that, and its the modern concepts and methodologies which are expanding science beyond its limited and reductionist constraints. He shows how “ceaseless creativity in the evolution of the biosphere” undermines the Newtonian concept of “natural laws”.

We will soon find its analogues in economic and cultural evolution, which, like the biosphere, are self-consistently self-constructing but evolving wholes whose constituents are partially lawless.

(This book was published in January 2008, and therefore written well before the economic crises of the last year)

This is a radically different scientific worldview than we have known. I believe this new scientific worldview breaks the Galilean spell of the sufficiency of natural law. In its place is a freedom we do not yet understand, but ceaseless creativity in the universe, biosphere, and human life are its talismans. I believe this creativity suffices to allow us to reinvent the sacred as the stunning reality we live in. But even more is at stake……We must come to see reason as part of a still mysterious entirety of our lives, when we often radically cannot know what will occur but must act anyway. We do, in fact, live forward into mystery.

I do resonate with these ideas. Emergence is a fascinating concept. To connect it to the concept of ceaseless creativity and beyond that to the notion of God as Creator is an interesting step. Somehow, though, it doesn’t quite work. I am with him in the awe-inspiring inspiration of ceaseless creativity. I think human beings, other creatures, Nature itself are endlessly fascinating and can, in fact, never be wholly known. But to use “God” symbolically to represent this phenomenon doesn’t work for me. I do like how contemplation of emergence, however, can help us to put reductionism in its place. In fact, reductionism can be more, not less, useful, if instead of trying to understand absolutely everything from that single standpoint, we use it in appropriate contexts and never consider that it gives us the whole “Truth”.

I also resonate with the idea that the acceptance of the inevitabilty of uncertainty makes us aware of the ineffable. In so doing, it makes both the mysterious more real, and reality more mysterious.

I wanted to like this book. I wanted it to be a great book. But that’s not where I’ve ended up. I’m grateful to Stuart Kauffman for this work though, and coming from the perspective of a scientist gives his ideas a particular and a unique value. But in terms of “reinventing the sacred”, I think poetry, art, photography, music, and stories do all that so much better. Take a look at the photos of the frozen Scottish countryside I posted earlier, read “Anam Cara” by John O’Donohue, or “The Little Prince” by Saint Exupery, get in touch with what the French call “emerviellement” in your daily life (in the “quotidien“) and tell me if you agree. Yes, the new science of complexity can make us a bit more humble again, has a good chance of firing up our sense of awe, but I think it takes both Art and Philosophy to really put us in touch with the sacred again.

Read Full Post »

There have been several studies which have shown that there is evidence of selection bias in the publication of drug trials. In this post here I gave a couple of examples of concerns about both the sheer number of trials conducted vs the number of publication outlets, and the huge percentage of registered trials which never make it as far as even being offered for publication.

Here’s another piece of that jigsaw. Reviewers from the Cochrane Library found that trials which demonstrated a positive effect of the drug studied were much more likely to be published than those which didn’t.

“This publication bias has important implications for healthcare. Unless both positive and negative findings from clinical trials are made available, it is impossible to make a fair assessment of a drug’s safety and efficacy,”

They found that not only were negative trials less likely to be published at all, but those which were tended to be published between and one and four years after the positive trials.

Results from one of the five studies in the review indicated that investigators and not editors might be to blame. The reasons most commonly given for not publishing were that investigators thought their findings were not interesting enough or did not have time. “The registration of all clinical trial protocols before they start should make it easier to identify where we are missing results,” says Kay Dickersin from Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, USA, another of the researchers on this project.

In other words, those carrying out the research were the ones responsible for deciding not to bother publishing unless the results supported the use of the drug being studied. Sadly, the New England Journal of Medicine study I quoted in the linked post at the beginning of this one, found that 30% of registered trials didn’t make it to publication! So it will take more than a simple registration process to sort out this distortion of the evidence base.

Read Full Post »

Maybe you remember the story from last year about the Spanish woman whose trachea (windpipe) had been destroyed by TB, and how a team of doctors in Bristol grew her a new one from her own stem cells? Well, it was a pretty remarkable story, but here’s an interestingly different angle on that story.

Prof Anthony Hollander was responsible for developing the technique of using stem cells in this way and in producing this particular patient’s windpipe.

He recalls this event from his childhood –

One day in 1973 Anthony – a “sickly child” – was off school and at home with his mother, when he found a fatally injured bird in the paved area of their garden in north London. “It was in some distress,” he recalls today. “My mum was too squeamish to deal with it, so I put it out of its misery. For a nine-year-old it was hard to have to do that.” As he remembers it he got to thinking, about death, and about how he might be able to keep people alive. “So I did what all sensible children do when in need of practical help with an idea. I wrote to Blue Peter,” he said. “I can vaguely remember I was thinking about re-routing the blood out of the heart and recirculating it. Then they could fix up the heart and it would be alright again. I just didn’t want that death stuff to happen.”

Blue Peter is a long-running childrens’ programme on the BBC which encouraged interaction with its viewers from the outset. In his letter he described his “strange belief” that he “knew how to make people or animals  alive” and asked for help – including a “model of a heart split in half” and “tools for cutting people open”. Well, the Blue Peter programme editor replied to the letter, as she and her team did to every one of the thousands of letters received every week. She encouraged him to seek information for his idea from the family doctor.

Listen to what he says about receiving the encouraging reply –

“If her letter had shown any hint of ridicule or disbelief I might perhaps never have trained to become a medical scientist or been driven to achieve the impossible dream, and really make a difference to a human being’s life,” …….. ” If you had failed to reply, or had treated my letter as a joke (as perhaps others might have done) it could well have altered the course of my life……..”I remember being thrilled at the time to have been taken seriously. Actually, even nowadays I am thrilled when people take my ideas seriously. I know that might sound strange to you. But my way of doing science is to think up a hundred theories, however mad, and work through them until I find one that fits the data.”

Isn’t that an amazing story? Just to make it all the more amazing, it’s emerged now as a story because Prof Hollander recently wrote to Biddy Baxter, the Blue Peter editor, to tell her how important her letter had been to him and discovered that she was in the process of compiling a book of the childrens’ letters and had already picked his out as one of the letters to include. Coincidence?

I’ll finish this little tale with another quote from Anthony Hollander which, I believe, completely hits the spot –

“As adults we can tend to lose the capacity to dream and think big. Children will dream unselfconsciously. I still do that – I still go around telling people ‘these are the things I want to do’. I don’t have time for any kind of scepticism.”

Read Full Post »

Nature loves diversity. Healthy ecosystems are filled with a wide range of species. Intensive farming has shown us how single species crops are difficult to maintain in good health which is why they need support from both fertilisers and “-cides” (insecticides, fungicides….). When a particular species becomes a pest we’ve made several attempts to counter them by either directly attempting to cut back their numbers or by introducing some new predator to try and control them. Both experiments can go horribly wrong.

Peter Johnson, at the University of Colorado, has been experimenting with a radically different approach – increasing diversity. He has shown that an effective way to reduce the prevalence of certain parasitical diseases is to increase the biodiversity of the ecosystems in which their hosts live. You can read more about this research here.

This is brilliant work and it shows how serious, common, infective diseases in the world, such as schistosomiasis and Lyme Disease, could be tackled by increasing biodiversity. The logic, of course, is that such diseases are likely to become steadily more problematic as our world loses species.

We really do live in a connected world and there really are better answers to our health problems than just throwing more chemicals around.

Read Full Post »

Black Swan, author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, was interviewed recently for Philosophy Now magazine. I happened to be reading it the other day and it came back to my mind as I sat in a train outside Queen Street station for half an hour this morning while engineers attempted to unstick a “points failure”.

My core idea is about the effect of non-observables in real life. My focus is on the errors which result: how the way we should act is affected by things we can’t observe, and how we can make decisions when we don’t have all the relevant information.

I really like his phrase, “non-observables”. It immediately made me think of the Little Prince, and Saint-Exupery’s theme of how what’s invisible is most important in our lives. But that’s not exactly what he means. He’s particularly interested on those events and phenomena which appear unpredictably (for example, by studying swans, you would think one of their characteristics was that they are all white. It’s only when the black one turns up in another part of the world, that you have to abandon that belief). Of particular relevance for this time of year, is his parable of the turkey. The turkey concludes, on the basis of its daily observations, that’s he’s always fed at 9am and that the people who look after him do so very well, that they care for him and want the best for him. It’s only on Christmas Eve that he discovers this was a wrong conclusion.

The scientific method is based on “induction” – using particular observations to generate general laws which then allow predictions to be made. Taleb clearly points out the weakness of this approach.

…..induction presupposes that nature behaves in a uniform fashion, but this belief has no defence in reason.

I also like this phrase of his – “I’m interested in the ecology of uncertainty, not induction and deduction”. The ecology of uncertainty is such a great phrase. How often do we desperately seek certainty in order to make our lives predictable? But it’s a delusion. The world is full of uncertainty. In fact, the more complex the issue, the less certainty we can find. Human beings are complex adaptive systems. We aren’t able to predict, in individual cases, exactly what course a disease will take, nor, whether or not a particular treatment will work.

I’m grateful to Nassim Nicholas Taleb for his work on uncertainty. As science begins to grapple with complexity, scientists are going to have to learn how to handle “the ecology of uncertainty” instead of relying on induction.

Read Full Post »

Complexity science

I wish someone could come up with a better name for this branch of knowledge and enquiry – calling it “complexity science” makes it seem so, well, COMPLEX! But actually it isn’t! It’s only the science of understanding reality in the raw. By that I mean understanding how natural and living systems function in the real world – in their connectedness and embeddedness. It’s the opposite of reductionism which takes the approach of breaking something down into small pieces (which actually don’t ever exist by themselves) and understanding the pieces as a way of understanding the whole.

I was interested to find this little article on Science Daily recently which mentioned the University of Vermont’s “Complex Systems Center”. It’s good to hear of universities bringing resources to bear on this area and I wasn’t surprised to hear it was part of their engineering and math Faculties. I do hope more universities expand their work on complexity and I wish more were multidisciplinary bringing together both physical and biological sciences with humanities.

The Center Director said –

“In its most simple form, a complex system is many distributed parts interacting in some distributed way,” Dodds says, “giving rise to some interesting, often unexpected, macrophenomena.”

and this reminded me of Linked by Albert-Laszlo Barabasi – I swear this is one of the most exciting books I’ve read this year and that if you want to begin to explore this whole area I couldn’t recommend any other better starting point than this. Read my review here first – but then go get the book!

The Science Daily article led me to explore the University of Vermont site. Here’s the link to their Complex Systems Center. And here’s a link to a video about “emergence” on the “PBS” site – and you’ll find links to John Holland of the Santa Fe Institute there (one of THE major thinkers and researchers in this area).

I hope you enjoy some of these resources – this really is a fascinating area of study. As best I can see, this is a MAJOR way forward to help us better understand our world and our lives.

Read Full Post »

Although I get a genuine thrill out of scientific discoveries about how the body works, it’s never quite enough for me. I’m always aware of something else. It’s partly that knowledge that a complex whole human being is so much more than the sum of his or her parts. But it’s also the knowledge that characteristics such as consciousness and highly developed language/communication skills aren’t just other elements which make humans different from all other living creatures. Rather they transform us. Our capacities to remember and to imagine open up whole other ways of being for us.

I’m re-reading one of my favourite trilogies (actually I’m re-reading the first two books in anticipation of the publication of the third and final one…….coming soon in English). It’s Jan Kjaerstad’s The Seducer, The Conqueror and The Discoverer. In the first of these, I came across this dialogue.

I think what I’m trying to say is that every human being could be said to be as much an accumulation of stories as of molecules. I am, in part, all the things I have read over the years. They don’t leave me. They settle inside me like – how can I put it? – like sediment.

So you believe the stories you have heard are every bit as important as the genes with which you have been endowed?

Maybe that’s what life is about. Collecting stories, Axel said, building up an arsenal of good tales, that can be put together in all sorts of complicated ways: like DNA.

If you’re right, then it’s not a matter of manipulating our genes but the stories in our lives, said Jonas.

It’s not the sequence of base-pairs, the genes, we ought to be mapping out, but the sequence of the stories that go to make up a life, and who knows? Arrange them differently and you might get another life altogether.

I certainly find that I gain insights and understanding about life from novels, from painting, from music, from movies and photographs, which I don’t get from a reductionist/materialist science. And I think there’s a lot of truth in this dialogue. Sure, it helps us to understand the mechanisms of molecular function, but if we want to understand living, human beings, then we have to understand how to listen and how to tell stories.

This is a significant part of my work as a doctor…….to understand a person by mapping out their stories and, therapeutically, to help them rearrange those stories in ways which enable them to create a different life.

Read Full Post »

I really enjoyed an Editorial in the Guardian about the unreliability of statistics – here’s the phrase which really made me laugh –

Research in 2005 suggested that only 36% of people think official statistics are accurate

I don’t know, what do you think……..do you believe it?

Read Full Post »

Selecting the evidence

There’s a strange presumption in some quarters that “science” (as if there was a “thing” called “science”) is the only way to know the TRUTH about reality. Research is a fascinating phenomenon to consider, and the more you consider it, the less straight forward it appears! One of the issues in medical research is the issue of bias produced by the funds for a study being put up by the pharmaceutical company which makes the drug. This is an issue which has been, and will continue to be, discussed and debated extensively. I’m not going to go down that road in this post. What I would like to draw your attention to however is an article published in PloS Medicine. The authors argue that the sheer size of the output from labs and research groups so outweighs the number of outlets for publication that there is an intense publication bias through the necessary highly limited selection process of the journals, that what is published amounts to a serious distortion of the reality of scientific endeavour.

The scarcity of available outlets is artificial, based on the costs of printing in an electronic age and a belief that selectivity is equivalent to quality. Science is subject to great uncertainty: we cannot be confident now which efforts will ultimately yield worthwhile achievements. However, the current system abdicates to a small number of intermediates an authoritative prescience to anticipate a highly unpredictable future. In considering society’s expectations and our own goals as scientists, we believe that there is a moral imperative to reconsider how scientific data are judged and disseminated.

An example of the kind of distortion of reality this selection process produces was highlighted in the New England Journal of Medicine which found this –

Results Among 74 FDA-registered studies, 31%, accounting for 3449 study participants, were not published. Whether and how the studies were published were associated with the study outcome. A total of 37 studies viewed by the FDA as having positive results were published; 1 study viewed as positive was not published. Studies viewed by the FDA as having negative or questionable results were, with 3 exceptions, either not published (22 studies) or published in a way that, in our opinion, conveyed a positive outcome (11 studies). According to the published literature, it appeared that 94% of the trials conducted were positive. By contrast, the FDA analysis showed that 51% were positive. Separate meta-analyses of the FDA and journal data sets showed that the increase in effect size ranged from 11 to 69% for individual drugs and was 32% overall.

The PloS article makes some suggestions for improving the system, not least recommending the digital publication of any research without significant errors rather than selection on the basis of what someone considers “important”. That would be a start! But the most important point here is that published research is not equivalent to Truth. We should consider it, but remain wary of claims to certainty.

Read Full Post »

I have a real love hate relationship with statistics. I’ve heard it said that all men love figures. Well, I’m not any different that way. Numbers interest me. On the other hand, however, I hate statistics! Actually, that’s not really true. What I hate is when statistics are given as “the truth”, or are given greater weight than human experience. My preference is always for stories. I am completely hooked on stories. The work of Gigerenzer really impresses me and I was reminded of his work yesterday when I read a piece on the BBC site about statistics. The piece is written by Michael Blastland and I enjoyed his style. He started off by picking up on a news item which claimed that vitamin E increased the risk of death by 14%. As he rightly points out the risk of death for all of us is 100%, so what point was the journalist trying to make? That the risk of death if you take vitamin E is 114%?! The thrust of the article is that we need to reconnect figures to human experience. He suggests we do this in two ways –

First, we need to remember that not much in life is either/or. According to the research, there’s something in the claim that Vitamin E supplements can be harmful. But, as with the consumption of salt, or even water, much that can kill is also essential to good health. The world does not divide easily into what’s toxic and what’s not, what’s safe and what isn’t. Risk is simply a way of measuring where we stand on the messy middle ground – which is almost everywhere. What matters in that messy middle is the relevant human quantity: how much supplementary vitamin E? A little won’t do any harm (or, probably, much good). A lot, especially if you are getting on in life, might. So a 14% increase in risk of death does mean something, but only if you say at what dose (high), for which group (the elderly), over what period (a single year, not in a lifetime).

The second common problem with any percentage increase like this, also crying out for a dose of real life is: what’s it increased from? Because 14% might be a lot if you start somewhere big, next to nothing if you start somewhere small. A 100% increase from one in a million becomes two in a million. So what? A 100% increase in the number of bullets in a revolver – if you are playing Russian roulette – well, that makes a difference.

I loved his concluding paragraph –

A percentage is not really a number, it is a share. The simple question to keep in mind is one that always strives to put it into a proper, human context: “A share of what? A share of a lot – or a share of a little?” Better still: “A share of who?” Keep it real.

Read Full Post »

« Newer Posts - Older Posts »