Heroes Not Zombies

There is no law that completely fixes the outcomes of every physical interaction, every dynamic event….But much of the outcome is lawfully ordered and predictable. Nature is neither inevitably random nor completely lawful and predictable.

Physicist, David Oliver

This is a great observation. There are no laws which determine with certainty that particular outcomes will come about – not in health care, not in economics, not in biology, not in weather forecasting! We all have repeated experiences of life taking unexpected turns.

This is, in no small measure, due to the fact that complex systems are massively interconnected, both within themselves and within the contexts of their existence. And the kinds of complex systems which exist in Nature are open systems. They cannot be separated out from their environments. There are always active flows of materials, energies, signals of many kinds…impacting upon and entering complex systems. And complex systems are constantly changing the environment in which they exist. Just by breathing, you change the air in the room, for instance.

But that doesn’t mean just anything goes. If you plant a lettuce seed it’s not going to grow into a chestnut tree. No matter what you “visualise” or wish for.

So reality is not bound by strict laws, but neither is it totally random.

GPs are trained to work with this understanding, taking their knowledge, experience and skills to make a diagnosis, recommend a treatment and make a prognosis. But I remember being taught that those who make the best diagnoses are those who are prepared to let go of their initial ones in the face of the evidence and their observations. That’s why humility is so important in making diagnoses, and even more so in making prognoses. That’s why continuity of care, following up, not regarding health care as event based but, rather relationship based over time, are all so important.

Yesterday I listened to the ex Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, being interviewed about his new book, “Radical Uncertainty”. He was counselling that we should be very wary of numbers and statistics, was highly sceptical about “super forecasters”, and suggested that, instead, we should rely more on stories. Interesting! I’m looking forward to reading it.

The stories we tell and the words we use shape the world we live in. We use stories to make sense of our lives and the world we live in. If we want to create a better future for our children and grandchildren perhaps we need some better stories. Stories of interconnection, stories of change, stories of uniqueness and diversity, stories about mutually beneficial relationships, stories which open our eyes to the lives of others and stories, above all, which inspire us to wonder.

Which stories inspire you to create a better future?