Two things got me thinking about certainty, uncertainty and risk on the way to work today.
First off, as I started to descend the two flights of concrete steps to the low-level platform at Queen Street Station, I heard this disembodied voice of a Scotrail employee saying “Customers are reminded to take care on the stairs and use the handrail provided”. I realised that they’d installed an automatic system which would play this message repeatedly every time somebody stepped onto the staircase. AAAAAARRRGGGHHH! I felt like shouting! “Thankyou for reminding me! I was just about to throw myself recklessly head-first down your concrete steps cocking a snoot at your shiny metal handrail! I won’t do it now! You reminded me just in time!” Good grief! What next? What with hot water taps that have warnings that say “This water is hot” (!!! Really???!!) So, that was my first thought. What is all this about warnings of all the terrible things that might happen these days? A variation of this same theme is surely those government bods who reckon they can keep us safe from terrorism by confiscating toiletries and baby milk before people get on planes!
Then I get on the train (having successfully managed yet again to negotiate a whole flight of stairs without falling down!) and I pick up a copy of the free newspaper “Metro”. My eye is caught by a piece about genetic tests to predict what diseases we might get, and here’s this quote from a woman in England who has a family history of breast cancer and she’s saying how great it would be to have genetic tests that told us exactly what diseases we were going to get and goes on to express her preference for the development of tests that would tell you exactly when you are going to die too!
What do you think about that?
Would you like to have a test that would tell you exactly what disease you were going to get and your exact time and date of death? (Of course, no test in the world will ever predict the chances of you dying in an accident – make sure you pay attention to that Scotrail message when negotiating stairs!)
But, seriously, do we want such certainty? Do you?
In Reckoning With Risk, Gerd Gigerenzer, repeatedly returns to Benjamin Franklin’s aphorism
In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.
But this really is at the core of a tricky issue. As far as I’m aware, human beings are the only creatures endowed with an imagination capable of enabling them to imagine their own deaths. Psychologists say that all fears are, at source, ‘existential’ fears (the fear of death, of ending, of non-existence). This knowledge of this one certainty can make life difficult for people. Many people consult doctors because they are afraid that a symptom is a feature of a mortal disease. Many people are trapped in routines because they fear what might happen if they try something different, or stray into previously unexplored territory. We even have a certain type of “scientist” who seeks to present every one of their findings and opinions as the certain Truth, and there are goodness knows how many experts who reckon they know for sure what is best for us!
OK, I accept that I need security in life. We all do. If I really couldn’t reasonably expect to travel to work tomorrow why would I even set out? But these things are variables and probabilities. There really are no guarantees – well, except death and taxes (Benjamin was right again)
Tell me what you think.
How much do you want certainty? What kind of risks are you prepared to take?
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